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Financial Planning & Investment Articles

The Markets: Looking Back and Looking Ahead

The 2018 stock market was a wild ride. It began with the best-performing January in 29 years, the longest stretch without a 5% pullback, and the first 10% correction in years, which occurred over a three-week period. For the ensuing six months, the market worked its way to another record high in September. Then, for the first time since 1950, the market experienced another lightning-fast correction, with many more stocks declining even further.

The Importance of a Financial Plan

When you’re planning a family road trip, you don’t just get in your car and start driving. You consider all the variables first. Formulating a solid plan is key for a successful road trip, and it is also the first step in a successful financial journey.

August 2018 Market Commentary

The summer rally continued through August, once again defying market pundits and conventional wisdom. In the midst of this move higher, however, there has been wide disparity among the various sectors. The market continues to favor growth-oriented sectors given accelerating economic growth and consumer spending, as well as robust spending on technology to fuel efficiency gains, while rising interest rates have made yield-oriented sectors less attractive.

Three things that could affect your financial plans in 2015

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Personal Finance

Financial Planning & Investment

2015-02-20

With 2015 in full swing, now is a good time to look ahead and see how economic factors might affect your personal financial plan this year. To help get you started, here are AAFMAA Wealth Management & Trust's three key takeaways from the 2015 Market Outlook.

Although the 2008 financial crisis is increasingly further away in the rearview mirror, the bulging national debt and anemic recovery of consumer confidence left in its wake will continue to act like an anchor on economic growth in 2015. It would be worse, however the recent dramatic decline in oil prices is somewhat of a wild card. Although prices have recovered somewhat already, associated gasoline prices are still at multiple-year lows, helping to prop up growth, for now at least. The same factors holding back the economy — lower energy prices, persistent unemployment, and Fed policies will also limit inflationary pressures in 2015.

2. Stock prices will follow earnings. Bonds show cause for concern.

Stocks are fairly valued. The market is already trading near historical average price to earnings multiples (P/E) for the current inflation range, which means stock prices will be driven mostly by earnings. Bonds on the other hand are overvalued due to the ongoing effects of Fed policy. They now have the daunting task of unwinding their policy actions at a pace that the market can digest. Interest rates are so suppressed at this point that bond prices would crater if they were allowed to just snap-back to "normal" historical yields. We remain defensive toward bonds in 2015.

3. Above all, ignore the noise.

The secret to successful long-term investing is establishing your own individual target asset allocation based on your specific situation, and then sticking to it. Ignore short-term events and market volatility. This "noise" can only distract you from your long term plan. The market is volatile by nature — it is normal and unpredictable. So ignore it and stick to your plan.

For a more in-depth review, visit the webinars page of the AAFMAA website and watch the 2015 Market Outlook webinar in its entirety.

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